Coronavirus statistics snapshot – frequencies slip again as the global flights slide continues; rates of decline remain small, but almost 8,000 flights and 1.3 million seats are lost in a week

9 September, 2020

Another week and another shallow decline in global frequencies continues the general trend that has been in place since early August. It is now three weeks since we hit the peak and frequencies are now getting closer to the figures we last saw in late July, but remain above the 400,000 weekly flight level, albeit only just!

The Blue Swan Daily analysis of OAG schedule data for the week commencing 07-Sep-2020 shows that global flight frequencies have again reduced, falling by almost 8,000 departures, the largest weekly decline this side of the initial recovery. Levels have fallen from just under 408,000 to just over 400,000.

The decline may again only be a small percentage, down -1.9%, but it does clearly show a plateauing in supply as increasing travel restrictions to manage potential infection spikes hit at a traditional seasonal decline. But is this more than this? As the weeks pass and any declines continue the shallow falls could over time become more of a deeper dive.

Notably, the large aviation economies head the weekly declines with North America losing over 4,800 weekly flights and slipping below 100,000 departures for the first time since June. Western Europe has lost 2,750 departures since last week, likely due to increasing travel restrictions, while the recovery in Lower South America has stalled (or perhaps right-sized) with the loss of over 1,350 departures this week, a -16.4% decline, but still up on all previous weeks since flight level crashed as Covid-19 took hold in the region.

The big positives this week is the continued opening of markets across Africa, which sees big percentage week-on-week growth in North Africa (+11.8%) and Central/Western Africa (+7.2%), albeit both from low bases. Southern Africa and Eastern Africa remain stable with small declines of -0.2% and -0.6%, respectively.

CHART - The reduction in the number of weekly flight departures from each of the 25 largest aviation markets in the world has stalled over recent weeks and still remains a long way down on levels seen last yearSource: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (data: 07-Sep-2020)

The decline in North America frequencies has been driven by reductions in the US market (-4.9%) and sees China again get close to overtaking the US as the world's largest aviation market by departures - it still holds the title of world number one by capacity. China is one of just three of the ten largest aviation markets to see week-on-week frequency growth, up +0.9%: the others being Indonesia (+0.4%) and India (+0.5%).

Elsewhere, Vietnam is starting to see the return of schedules (+18.3%) after what has been a short-term, but fairly significant decline; Poland sees flight departures rise by more than a quarter (+26.8%); and Romania sees a significant uplift (+79.2%), but remains just outside the top 50 markets by frequencies.

Brazil, which last week had a +45.9% rise in frequencies has seen levels fall almost a fifth (-18.9%) this week as the market perhaps repositions to meet true demand. Spain furthermore highlights how increasing concerns over a second wave from localised spikes in infections can quickly change fortunes by recording a -9.1% decline, the heaviest decline among the ten largest country markets, and follows a -11.4% decline the previous week.

CHART - Global air capacity collapsed as the Covid-19 pandemic spread across the world. After an initial stabilisation stage we had until this month seen continued steps of recovery, but now a plateauing and even a continued slip in capacity is becoming more evidentSource: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (data: 07-Sep-2020)

The -1.9% decline in flight frequencies for the week translates into a -2.3% reduction in capacity, taking it below the levels seen in the week commencing 27-Jul-2020 and a fifth consecutive week-on-week decline. The 60 million seat milestone achieved in the week commencing 03-Aug-2020 may prove to be the high-point of the recovery, except perhaps for any seasonal peaks we may see for holiday periods over the latter stages of the calendar year.

In recent weeks seasonality had played a key role in reductions and year-on-year performance had been fairly positive and neutral at worst. That is not the case this week where the reductions see one parameter slip back below the -50% figure. Flight frequencies are down -47.9%, a 0.9 percentage point reduction on last week, while capacity levels are down -50.2%, a similar 0.9 percentage point reduction on last week.