The 2020s were expected to be another strong decade of air travel growth with 2020 projected to see an additional 180 million passengers on top of the levels seen last year. Airbus and Boeing were among those projecting record aircraft orders and deliveries for the decades ahead to keep up with the growing demand for air travel.
But for all of us the world has changed. There is no such thing as normal anymore as we reinvent all aspects of life, at all levels, for the new world that has been in born in 2020. While this year has been unprecedented in terms of its disruption, Boeing has attempted to look beyond the short-term and look at the longer-term repercussions of the year's event. While the commercial aviation and services markets "will continue to face significant challenges due to the pandemic," it does provide more optimism for the medium- and long-term.
The annual Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) is an eagerly received publication giving a longer-term viewpoint on the industry. This year the forecast is even more important giving some respected views on the recovery. Boeing's chief strategy officer Marc Allen is confident the aerospace and defence industries "will overcome these near-term challenges, return to stability and emerge with strength".
While the decade forecast demand for aerospace products and services is down a massive USD0.2 trillion on the levels estimated in last year's BMO, it still represents a total market value of USD8.5 trillion over the next decade.
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic may still be weighing heavy on the industry and while airlines globally have begun to recover from a greater than 90% decline in passenger traffic and revenue early this year, a full recovery will take years, a view supported by Boeing's outlook.
Following a decade of above average passenger traffic growth and record profitability, Boeing described Covid-19 as an "extraordinary demand shock to air travel". While aviation has seen periodic demand shocks since the beginning of the jet age, Boeing says the "magnitude and breadth of the current downturn surpasses those we have previously seen," but takes hope from the industry's history of resilience, adaptability and ultimately, recovery.
In its 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), an annual 20-year forecast addressing the market for commercial aeroplanes and services, Boeing sees some short-term variance, transitioning to a more positive longer-term demand level. Most notably, it projects an increase in the share of deliveries replacing older passenger aircraft that are being retired in an accelerated replacement cycle, especially in the first decade.
"This year's forecast reflects a combination of Covid-19's unparalleled near-term industry decline and the long-term resilience we have seen for decades. The current market disruption will shape airline fleet strategies long into the future as airlines make decisions to renew their fleets into the medium-term and grow again in the longer-term," it says.
In Boeing's eyes airlines will focus on "building versatile fleets that provide future network flexibility, maximum capability for lower costs, and improved efficiency and sustainability". It sees a total demand for 18,350 commercial aeroplanes in the next decade - 11% lower than the comparable 2019 forecast - valued at about USD2.9 trillion. In the longer term, with key industry drivers expected to remain stable, the commercial fleet is forecasted to return to its growth trend, generating demand for more than 43,000 new aeroplanes in the 20-year forecast time period.
"Commercial aviation is facing historic challenges this year, significantly affecting near- and medium-term demand for aeroplanes and services," acknowledges Darren Hulst, vice president, commercial marketing at Boeing.
"Yet history has also proven air travel to be resilient time and again. The current disruption will inform airline fleet strategies long into the future, as airlines focus on building versatile fleets, networks and business model innovations that deliver the most capability and greatest efficiency at the lowest risk for sustainable growth," he adds.
Despite the 2020 performance the Boeing outlook still suggests a +4% growth in passenger traffic through the 20 years under observation. Air cargo demand, a relative bright spot in 2020, is expected to also grow +4% annually.
The manufacturer sees the global commercial fleet growing to 48,400 aircraft by 2039, up from 25,900 today. During this period, Asia will continue to expand its share of the world's fleet, accounting for nearly 40% of the fleet compared to about 30% today. The strong cargo demand will generate further demand for 930 new widebody production freighters and 1,500 converted freighters over the forecast period.
Boeing's projections show that single-aisle aircraft will continue to be the largest market segment, with operators projected to need 32,270 new aeroplanes in the next 20 years. Single-aisle demand will recover sooner due to its key role in short-haul routes and domestic markets as well as passenger preference for point-to-point service, observes Boeing.
In the widebody market, it forecasts demand for 7,480 new passenger airplanes by 2039. Widebody demand will be affected by a slower recovery in long-haul markets - typical after air-travel shocks - as well as the ongoing uncertainties of Covid-19's impact on international travel.
The Boeing CMO is among the longest-running aircraft demand forecast and is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. The full CMO - including a regional breakdown of Boeing's demand projections - and other market forecasts can be found on its website: Boeing forecasts