Industry Intelligence – catch up on CAPA’s exclusive market analysis insights

30 August, 2021

Each week, CAPA - Centre for Aviation produces informative, thought provoking and detailed market analysis of the aviation industry. With supporting data included in every analysis, CAPA provides unrivalled and unparalleled intelligence. Here's some of the reports published over the past week.

Qantas' international plans to emerge from the 'Hermit Kingdom'

As Australia starts to plan for international reopening, its only flag carrier Qantas has comprehensively laid out its conditional plans for commencing services in 2022. Optimistically, "December 2021 remains in reach" for restarting, hoping to catch some of the Christmas peak traffic.

Priority destinations (the "initial focus"), will include Singapore, the United States, Japan, United Kingdom and Canada. New Zealand is also targeted for mid-Dec-2021; a "bubble" temporarily existed earlier this year until outbreaks in Australia disrupted that.

Destinations "with low vaccine rates and high levels of infection" will be delayed until Apr-2022. These include Bali, Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok, Phuket, Ho Chi Minh City and Johannesburg.

Five A380s will be returned to service on Los Angeles and London routes by mid-2022, to "meet high demand".

TO READ ON, VISIT: Qantas' international plans to emerge from the 'Hermit Kingdom'

CAPA Live: Ryanair DAC CEO Eddie Wilson - 'You've got to give people confidence'

Talking at the CAPA Live on 9-Jun-2021, Ryanair DAC CEO Eddie Wilson spoke with CAPA's senior financial analyst Jonathan Wober. Some of his key quotes included: "You can sell anything if the price is right"; "People travel for lots of reasons. It's not all about people going on holiday"; "Ultimately we're going to see capacity contract in Europe, particularly on short haul. You are going to see consolidation"; "The 737 MAX are going to be fantastic. They've got 16% less fuel burn, 40% less emissions, and eight more seats, and it really is, as we say, going to be a game changer for this airline"; "There's always something that happens every five or seven years, whether that's volcanic ash or foot and mouth disease or whatever".

TO READ ON, VISIT: CAPA Live: Ryanair DAC CEO Eddie Wilson - 'You've got to give people confidence'

Scotland-US aviation: Virgin/Delta could replace United as leader

On 11-Aug-2021 Virgin Atlantic Airways announced plans to launch new routes from Edinburgh. It will begin a service from the Scottish capital to Orlando, Florida, on 5-Dec-2021 and begin flights to the Caribbean island of Barbados in Apr-2022.

These flights will be Virgin Atlantic's first-ever international services from Edinburgh in its 37 years. In addition, the Barbados flights will be Scotland's only direct service to the Caribbean. The Orlando service will be a small step in the re-expansion of the almost vanished Scotland-US market.

In the week commencing 16-Aug-2021 the only Scotland-US passenger route is Glasgow to Orlando Sanford, operated by TUI Airways. According to schedules data from OAG, TUI will not operate in the winter season, leaving Virgin Atlantic as the only operator from any Scottish Airport to the US when it launches in Dec-2021.

Before the pandemic, the Delta/Virgin Atlantic partnership was a close second to United in the Scotland-US market, with American a distant third and British Airways non-existent.

Virgin/Delta now has the potential to lead this market.

TO READ ON, VISIT: Scotland-US aviation: Virgin/Delta could replace United as leader

New York LaGuardia airport: AirTrain in danger of cancellation

There is never a dull day in politics, nor in the air transport business. In New York the two just came together into what could be a disaster movie.

No sooner had the FAA belatedly given the thumbs-up to the scheme to build a more-expensive-by-the-day 'AirTrain' people mover between public transport stations and La Guardia Airport than its biggest mover and shaker, the state Governor, Andrew Cuomo, stated he would resign over numerous political and personal scandals.

The scheme could still go ahead, but it seems many of the Port Authority's staff are against it, along with local and national politicians and environmental protest groups. Emphasis may switch to a rail tunnel under the Hudson River, which has federal government backing.

Public-private partnerships to build direct and indirect airport-related infrastructure in the US have been on the rise, but the opposition to this scheme may bring them into question generally, as well as prompting another question - under what circumstances could an entirely private sector piece of infrastructure be built at, or connecting to, an airport in the present political climate?

TO READ ON, VISIT: New York LaGuardia airport: AirTrain in danger of cancellation

Toronto's Billy Bishop airport. What role for inner-city airports?

There are few close-to-downtown airports catering to short haul, turbo prop-operated services, mainly to business cites, to be found anywhere. One of them is the 'Billy Bishop' airport in Toronto, Canada.

Owned by a public sector enterprise, the terminal is operated by the private sector, but the harsh realities of the coronavirus pandemic have prompted a search for a new investor.

What that investor will find is that the future - if there is one - will be dictated as much by environmental awareness and sustainability as by the pandemic.

There are other examples elsewhere that point to it and one of them, London City Airport, has shown how difficult it can be for such airports to regain lost capacity - which is a warning to 'Billy Bishop'.

TO READ ON, VISIT: Toronto's Billy Bishop airport. What role for inner-city airports?

SPECIAL REPORTS: Aviation Sustainability and the Environment

This regular weekly CAPA report features a summary of recent aviation sustainability and environment news, selected from the 300+ news alerts published daily by CAPA. This week's issue includes: Virgin Atlantic Airways signs on as customer for Storegga's proposed UK carbon capture facility; All Nippon Airways to test SAF market and fuel supply at airports from Sep-2021; Istanbul Airport joins ACI's Net Zero 2050 initiative; US FAA grants USD20.4m to US airports for zero emissions vehicles, emissions reduction technology; Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport future to be dictated by sustainability drive as much as COVID-19.

TO READ ON, VISIT: SPECIAL REPORTS: Aviation Sustainability and the Environment