Europe aviation recovery slips. Winter schedules may be trimmed
Europe's capacity recovery has slipped to its lowest level as a percentage of 2019 levels since mid May-2022. In the week of 31-Oct-2022 seat numbers are at 84.4%, which is a shortfall of 15.6% against the equivalent week in 2019.
Europe remains fifth in the regional ranking, above Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 27.5% versus 2019.
Although Europe's seat numbers as a percentage of 2019 levels are at a 26-week low, the capacity recovery remains broadly within its range of more than five months.
However, recent booking data indicates that USD strength has been a contributory factor in damping demand from the eurozone to other markets.
TO READ ON, VISIT: Europe aviation recovery slips. Winter schedules may be trimmed
Airbus and Boeing to deliver more than 1000 aircraft in 2022; more to come in 2023
Airbus and Boeing continued to enjoy an upswing in ordering and aircraft production through 3Q2022, putting both manufacturers on the path towards a better 2023.
The two major Western OEMs are poised to exceed 1000 aircraft deliveries in 2022, and both are looking to ramp up deliveries further in 2023, and achieve full recovery somewhere in the middle of the decade.
Based on production plans, declared targets and historical delivery patterns, the two major OEMs should deliver somewhere above 1100 aircraft in 2022, putting global deliveries back towards where they were in 2012.
TO READ ON, VISIT: Airbus and Boeing to deliver more than 1000 aircraft in 2022; more to come in 2023
Germany aviation: market slips from 2nd to 3rd in Europe; Lufthansa Group share erodes
Germany was Europe's number two aviation market by seats pre-COVID, behind only the UK, but it has slipped to third.
This owes much to the slower capacity recovery by German airlines from the COVID-19 pandemic compared with rival airlines in this market. Germany may struggle to recover the number two ranking from Spain in the near to medium term.
Lufthansa Group has said that it plans 85% of its 2019 capacity for 2023, while the leading ultra-LCCs Ryanair, Wizz Air and Pegasus Airlines are already now far above this level.
Although LCC share is lower in Germany than elsewhere in Europe, the ultra-LCCs are outpacing the overall German capacity recovery.
The long term decline in Lufthansa Group's seat share seems likely to continue.
TO READ ON, VISIT: Germany aviation: market slips from 2nd to 3rd in Europe; Lufthansa Group share erodes
Caribbean aviation: US Virgin Islands seeks public-private development of its two airports
Puerto Rico is the location of the US' only successful full airport lease to the private sector.
But although the US has changed its mind about privatising its regional airports, the neighbouring US Virgin Islands is ploughing ahead with its own scheme to attract the private sector to complete infrastructure improvements to the terminal buildings at its two airports, in return for a long term management concession.
A request for proposals (RFP) may be issued by the end of 2022. Similar public-private partnerships (P3s) have modernised Jamaica's airport terminals in Kingston and Montego Bay.
The necessary funding requirement is a high one, and getting investors in will be influenced by to what degree tourists return - and how quickly.
TO READ ON, VISIT: Caribbean aviation: US Virgin Islands seeks public-private development of its two airports
Japan's Kagoshima considers privatisation of its airport, an important domestic gateway
The Japanese airport privatisation process continues to gain momentum, and it is increasingly smaller regional airports that want to take advantage of what is known to be strong demand from investors.
When the process first began, seven years ago, the national government said that it would like all the country's 97 airports to be privatised, and it has recently reinforced that view.
The latest airport is Kagoshima, on the island of Kyushu in the far southwest of the country.
Kagoshima is an important gateway for flights to and from the string of islands to the south, in the East China Sea. Full service carriers predominate and have 89% of capacity, with only 9% accruing to the low cost segment - which is eight percentage points less than for Japan as a whole.
The government is committed to the privatisation of airports like this and there have been successes elsewhere - the municipal authorities could not be blamed for thinking that their time has come.
TO READ ON, VISIT: Japan's Kagoshima considers privatisation of its airport, an important domestic gateway
Privatised Tweed New Haven Airport: part one - 'no big deal' but 'test case' for future
There has been a continuing lack of take-up of the airport privatisation programme in the US - where whole airports can be leased (but not sold), contrasted with a burgeoning public-private (P3) programme for specific infrastructure.
The recently formally approved lease concession deal on the Tweed New Haven airport in New England combines the two, encouraging the operator Avports and financier Goldman Sachs to manage the airport and to expand it by way of a new terminal and a runway extension. The latter, in particular, is a necessity if the airport is to reach its potential and provide a first class facility for the local population.
Already the environmental lobby is ranged against expansion, winning support of one of the city owners and threatening to launch a process that has delayed another privatisation deal several years.
Like it or not, Tweed is becoming a 'test case' for the future of these deals.
This is part one of a two-part report.
TO READ ON, VISIT: Privatised Tweed New Haven Airport: part one - 'no big deal' but 'test case' for future
UK's Southampton Airport: part two - 2019 levels 'unachievable' without runway extension
The demise of the UK's Doncaster-Sheffield Airport must have set many municipal authorities' nerves on edge. Now Southampton Airport on the English south coast says it will need to build back up quickly to at least 1.2 million passengers annually if it is to survive - while it will lose GBP4.5 million this year.
Candidly, the management admits it doesn't deserve to survive if it cannot make money.
The remedy appears to be a runway extension on which work should begin in 2023, the usual objections having been overcome in the courts.
But supply doesn't necessarily equate with demand, and with competitors for its catchment area - including the two London giants that are Heathrow and Gatwick, as well as Bournemouth, 30 miles to the west - there is much work to do just to get Southampton back to pre-pandemic levels.
This is part two of a two-part report.