Industry Intelligence – catch up on CAPA’s exclusive market insights

10 April, 2023

Each week, CAPA - Centre for Aviation produces informative, thought provoking and detailed market analysis of the aviation industry. With supporting data included in every analysis, CAPA provides unrivalled and unparalleled intelligence.

Here's some of the reports published over the past week.

Europe to Africa aviation leads both regions' recoveries, offers huge potential

The Europe to Africa aviation market has been leading the capacity recovery of both Europe and Africa from the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the only regional market to/from Europe to have more capacity in 1Q2023 than in 1Q2019.

The recovery in Europe-Africa has been led by routes between Europe and North Africa, where seat capacity reached 112% of 2019 levels in 1Q2023 and is projected to reach 115% in 2Q2023.

The short/medium haul Europe-North Africa market is characterised by leisure routes and now accounts for 70% of all Europe-Africa seats. It is North Africa that has propelled the ultra-LCC Ryanair to be the number one airline by seats between Europe and Africa.

Europe to Africa is the second smallest regional market to/from Europe by seats, but offers huge potential.

TO READ ON, VISIT: Europe to Africa aviation leads both regions' recoveries, offers huge potential

Aeromexico leverages a unique position in Mexico's aviation market

Mexico's only full service carrier Aeromexico finds itself in a somewhat unique position as it remains the country's solo intercontinental operator. Leveraging that position, the airline plans to take advantage of long haul demand - particularly to Europe.

Closer to home, Aeromexico and all of Mexico's largest operators are looking forward to the US issuing a safety upgrade for the company, which will allow Mexican airlines to resume growth in the strategic US transborder market.

The US remains Aeromexico's most strategic international market. Mexico's airlines are waiting for the US to issue a safety upgrade for Mexico after the US Federal Aviation Administration downgraded the country's rating in May-2021. As a result of the downgrade, Mexican airlines cannot add new routes or frequencies to the US or make equipment changes to their US market, including using larger aircraft.

The government has said that it would like to create a state-owned airline to operate on underserved routes. Previously, the government has stated that the airline could launch in 2023 and operate 10 aircraft, and would be operated by Olmeca Maya Mexica.

Aeromexico is confident that it can weather any changes to Mexico's domestic market, including the potential emergence of a state-owned airline.

TO READ ON, VISIT: Aeromexico leverages a unique position in Mexico's aviation market

Domestic UK aviation: Ryanair expands, moves on from Brexit and COVID-19

On 30-Mar-2023 Ryanair announced nine new domestic UK routes for summer 2023. The airline said that the expansion was in response to the UK's 50% reduction in Air Passenger Duty (APD).

From the start of Apr-2023 APD on UK domestic flights in the lowest class available fell from £13 to £6.50 per passenger. The £13 rate had applied since 2012.

Ryanair's UK domestic network has come through two great disruptions in recent years - namely Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Its summer 2023 schedule now has 10 UK domestic routes, operated by its subsidiary Ryanair UK, versus just one last summer. Although its seat capacity in this market is not quite back to pre-pandemic/Brexit levels, this is an increase on the six routes it operated in those days.

Ryanair UK is only fourth by seats in the UK domestic market (behind easyJet, British Airways and Loganair), but the new routes signal that it has put the two disruptions well behind it.

TO READ ON, VISIT: Domestic UK aviation: Ryanair expands, moves on from Brexit and COVID-19

Johannesburg Airport passenger traffic recovery depends on SAA and new long haul routes

Johannesburg's OR Tambo International Airport (JNB) has paid the price of the financial difficulties that South African Airways (SAA) has found itself in over the past few years.

Now SAA seems to be making a comeback - not for the first time - and intends to launch new regional and long haul routes.

Meanwhile, two airlines will launch services from Latin America and Asia Pacific later in the year, further underlining the airport's credentials as a long haul hub facility for travel on thin routes - but where there is demand, all the same.

South Africa is undergoing a political realignment, one that will not be viewed favourably in Europe and North America, but which might dictate long haul route development over the next few years.

TO READ ON, VISIT: Johannesburg Airport passenger traffic recovery depends on SAA and new long haul routes

ACI-NA calls for airport cash infusion; how politics impact airports in US and Canada - part one

As regular as clockwork, along with Christmas and the first cuckoo of spring, Airports Council North America (ACI-NA) calls for a massive injection of public cash into America's airports each year.

After two years of the COVID-19 pandemic and one of partial recovery, it is hardly unexpected this year, but it comes as the US government grapples with inflation, bank failures, falling production, funding the Ukrainian resistance and a massive debt that has been made worse by trillions of dollars already committed to 'infrastructure'.

You can only print so much money if there isn't the production to match it, as even the present administration is finding out. Airports (alt: 'polluters') have probably had as much as they are going to get from Washington.

In any case there are already numerous projects under way at a wide range of US airports.

TO READ ON, VISIT: ACI-NA calls for airport cash infusion; how politics impact airports in US and Canada - part one

ACI-NA calls for airport cash infusion; how politics impact airports in US and Canada - part two

As regular as clockwork, along with Christmas and the first cuckoo of spring, Airports Council North America (ACI-NA) calls for a massive injection of public cash into America's airports each year.

After two years of the COVID-19 pandemic and one of partial recovery, it is hardly unexpected this year, but it comes as the US government grapples with inflation, bank failures, falling production, funding the Ukrainian resistance and a massive debt that has been made worse by trillions of dollars already committed to 'infrastructure'.

In Canada, the position is even worse, with less airport infrastructure investment even than in the US, and privatisation rebuffed out of hand by the present administration.

With elections coming up in 2024 in the US and 2025 in Canada, putting all other matters aside, airports at least might expect to profit from a change in government in both countries.

TO READ ON, VISIT: ACI-NA calls for airport cash infusion; how politics impact airports in US and Canada - part two

Brazil's CCR looks to acquire more airport concessions in Latin America

Private management of airports in Latin America is dominated by the giant Corporación América, but at a slightly lower level there are several other companies. Those companies are led by Brazil's CCR, which is mainly a road and rail operator specialising in toll roads but which has built up a hefty airport portfolio, mainly in Brazil, in the last few years.

With the Brazilian airport concessions reaching the end of the runway, CCR has declared that it wants to spread its wings throughout the continent where it already has a handful of airport assets, and it has been in talks with potential collaborators that might either co-invest in its existing assets or help it acquire new ones; or both.

With a lot of the low-hanging fruit already consumed in the region, the question is how ambitious CCR and these collaborators are.

TO READ ON, VISIT: Brazil's CCR looks to acquire more airport concessions in Latin America