Benson: With the continuous growth of technology such as AI, Blockchain, Chatbox etc do you think the jobs/openings for travel managers will become more or less, with roughly what percentage?
Michael: I believe that it is inevitable that it will become less for the reasons cited but more importantly because there will be much more self-sufficiency and self-service. While I still believe there will be a place for the strategic management of travel spend and the efficient management of policies, systems and related activities, the "people force" to accomplish this will become less. I believe you will see specialists in such roles within organisations' procurement, general administration, HR or even IT, along with the tactical use of independent consultants to advise on the best fit for companies based on their needs. We've seen this pattern historically in other corporate professions such as HR, real estate & facilities and IT. Again, if I have to "crystal ball" these projections, I'd guess from current baseline: 2020-2025 will decrease 10%. 2025 to 2030 a further drop of 25%. And a decade later until 2030, it could decline to 50%. That said, I don't think it is all doom and gloom. Look at the growth of some retail travel agents, both independent and network, which have seen fewer numbers, but greater profitability and job security in the past few years - even during COVID! I'd point people towards Steve Jermanok's writings on this topic. He was a Wall Street trader who left his job in 1990 which was the start of the first "dot com" era, to become a travel writer and later agent. He says he's coming off one of his best years ever and many others are still joining. Fundamentally, I think the nature of the profession will change but not the people who love it.
Benson: Mr Chairman, thanks for the tech insight which is a bit nerve-racking. However, what is your frank views on the future of corporate travel?
Michael: Following on from the question about threats to travel, I'm confident that corporate travel will be back one day, and not too distant into the future, bigger and better! I remember a number of cataclysmic events over the past couple of decades that shook corporate travel with many vowing it will "never be the same." Probably most notable occurred on 9-Feb-1995 … anyone remember that date? It was when Delta Air Lines announced the first major "commission caps." I'd encourage anyone to go back and read the press of the day: 25,000 travel agencies to go out of business; prices for consumers will skyrocket, Delta will be boycotted … in fact, corporate travel marched on, bigger, better and probably more efficient. Similarly, many of us worked through: the dot-com bubble burst, 9/11, SARS, the global financial crisis, the unpronounceable Icelandic volcano … and each time, corporate travel came back at higher numbers than ever. I have every expectation this will happen again and the future will be fantastic.
Benson: With your reply that the corporate travel future will be "fantastic", could you estimate with a percentage what corporate travel will rise/drop in the post-COVID situation?
Michael: Wow … if I knew that! But let me make some guess which is highly dependent on the development of vaccines, faster screening, better treatments, etc. Of course, it will also vary by region. With a widely available and effective vaccine: I see international travel growing as follows over the 2020 baseline: By end of 2021, increase by 30%. In 2022, upsurge by 65%. In 2023, grow by 75%. In 2024, rise by 90%. And in 2025 corporate travel will be back to the level of 2019 i.e. pre-COVID period. We might even see a growth by 10% to 20% in 2026. Domestic will broadly come back faster, with most countries back to 2019 levels in 2-3 years.
This concludes the tête-à-tête with our Asia CTC Chairman. My afterthought of these "Bow-Tie Briefing" series is that, how fortunate we are in our beloved corporate travel industry, many superb industry experts are willing to nurture our fellow corporate travel executives unreservedly. It is our CTC pledge to ensure the best knowledge sharing is being brought forward ?.
Bow-Tie Briefing shares the views of Benson Tang, a corporate travel thought leader and executive director of the Corporate Travel Community (CTC). Benson's remarkable career in travel started more than 25 years ago and his extensive knowledge of the corporate travel sector has made him a sought-after speaker and lecturer.